Will this one thing be social media’s downfall?
Issue #93
Do you remember what life was like before social media? Think back to a time without feeds, scrolling, notifications or likes. These things are ever-present in our lives and the lives of our children. But, I’m beginning to wonder how much longer that will be the case.
People have been talking about Peak Social Media for a while. Back in 2021, Statista reported that daily social media use had plateaued in previous years—and even began dipping by a couple of minutes. While those usage numbers climbed slightly in 2022 and 2023, they seem to be trending down again for 2024.
While the stats are bouncing around a bit, my prediction is that we’re witnessing the end of the golden age of social media—and not because of user attrition or new regulations. I think people will eventually abandon these platforms for a different reason. The factor that will hasten their downfall? Deepfake technology. I believe that this kind of AI-generated content is going to erode the functionality of social media so much that people won’t find value in it any longer.
Whether you love these platforms or hate them, they’ve been a fixture in our culture because they’ve been useful to some degree. They’ve allowed us to connect, stay up to date on the news, discover new things and generally entertain ourselves with novel content.
But, their utility hinges on the quality of their content, which has been declining for years. Think back to when you first signed up for Facebook. When you logged on, you probably saw messages from your friends on your wall, pictures from their adventures and maybe a few notifications that you’d been poked. Contrast that to today: feeds can feel like a wasteland with advertising tumbleweeds. Something similar is happening on Instagram as well. Feeds are clogged with lots of sponsored content, suggested content and ads. You don’t see as much content from friends on social media platforms these days.
But maybe you’re not on social media for your pals. Maybe you’re there to stay up to date on current events. Today, roughly half of US adults say they still get at least some of their news from social media—but according to a PEW Research report, more people are concerned about the accuracy of the news they see on these platforms. This isn’t surprising. Misleading and outright fake content has proliferated on platforms like Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, and I’ve written before about how seeing is not believing on social media anymore.
There’s a lot of low-quality stuff floating around in the social ecosystem. And, readily available deepfake technology means these kinds of posts are getting easier to make. When deepfake posts crowd out everything else, that will shove what quality remains off a cliff. When anyone can generate fake images, audio and video—and social media platforms don’t have a robust way to identify them—it’ll be impossible to trust anything you see.
I doubt people will want to sift through piles of fake news in order to get to the real news. And I don’t think people will really want to build social connections on platforms where people might not be real either.
Platforms flooded with deepfake content are especially dangerous for our kids. They’re still learning about the digital world and they don’t need the added challenge of trying to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They don’t need to be socializing in ecosystems that are inundated by AI-generated content made by people they can’t trust.
When my kids are online, I want them to spend time surrounded by people who care about them. I want them to encounter inspiring ideas and learn amazing things, and they won’t be able to do that if they’re too busy sifting through the digital trash.
A deeper dive
Here are a few helpful resources in case you want to really dig into today's topic:
Deepfakes have taken off with alarming speed, especially when you consider the fact that these technologies weren’t widely available a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, a great deal of deepfakes are nudes. There’s already been a rash of AI-generated nudes at high schools across the US—a trend I predicted this time last year. And according to experts, “the use of nonconsensual, AI-generated images to harass, humiliate and bully young women can harm their mental health, reputations and physical safety as well as pose risks to their college and career prospects.” When I worry about AI, this is what I worry about most.
Along with deepfake nudes, AI-generated propaganda is one of the biggest concerns. And, a recent study suggests that AI propaganda is just as convincing as the man-made stuff. With just a bit of tweaking, it can be even more persuasive. Once that content makes it into the social media ecosystem, that’s very bad news.
TL;DR
Too long; didn't read. It shouldn't be a full-time job to keep up on industry news, so here is a mercifully quick summary of some other notable developments:
Snapchat released a premium feature that shows users where they rank in their friends’ “solar systems.” It’s basically a measure of how often you snap each other—but the ranking system left many users anxious. The feature was on by default for premium subscribers, but the company ended up walking it back along with the statement admitting that “We understand that even though it can feel good to know you are close to someone, it can also feel bad to know that you aren't as close to a friend as you'd like to be.” They must have realized that this kind of feature could have that kind of effect, no? And they released it anyway.
Last newsletter, I wrote about a new law in Florida that prohibits children under 14 years from having social media accounts, regardless of parental consent. I thought this article from the Wall Street Journal did a good job of picking through the thornier aspects of the new law, including why age verification is so difficult. Here’s the long and short of it: “Part of the challenge is that most children targeted by these laws don’t have official identification. Many parents aren’t tech-savvy or aware enough to play a role in enforcing age rules for their children. In addition, some in the tech industry, and some parents, have expressed privacy concerns about certain age-verification methods such as facial scans.”
And lastly
Here are a few more pieces of original writing from me and my team—just in case you're keen for more:
Snapchat has a built-in AI feature that users can chat with. Here’s what parents need to know about My AI.
And, if you have questions about ChatGPT, the generative AI that’s dominating the market, here’s a parent’s guide from my team.