My predictions for the metaverse
Issue #40
Yesterday I had the pleasure of chatting with Dr. Pamela Rutledge and Diana Graber of Cyberwise, and we talked all about the metaverse. Thanks to Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook rebranding to become Meta, the term has been everywhere—and lots of parents, understandably, have questions. What is the metaverse? Is it safe? Should we let our kids access it?
For most of these questions, a straightforward answer is elusive because the metaverse doesn’t exactly exist yet. It’s more concept than reality at this point. As it stands today, we can already see shades of the metaverse to come: virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), cryptocurrency and NFTs, these all exist today. The iPhone launched 15 years ago and our online interactions have increasingly taken place through a screen ever since. The metaverse will bring marriages of emerging hardware and software to create new online experiences for us, but I don't think we'll see that happen exclusively through VR headsets either.
I'm bearish on VR, and don’t think it will be able to move beyond gaming and other niche applications. It requires expensive headsets and a dedicated space to enjoy safely. Personally, I’d put my money on AR being a bigger part of the metaverse, and in fact, my company even made a small investment in an AR product. The potential there has more varied and immediate applications (and it doesn’t give you vertigo).
Like all tech in its nascent stages, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for the metaverse. And like all tech, it has the potential to veer into dystopian territory. Mark Zuckerberg has boldly proclaimed his intention to build and steward the metaverse, but I sincerely hope we’ve learned our lesson: the metaverse is taking shape, but we probably don’t want to hand the reigns to the guy who created Facebook and all of its unintended consequences that came from moving fast and breaking things.
I think the metaverse will feature a deep commercialization of online experiences—something like what you see in the digital world of Roblox today. We’ll end up creating avatars and interacting with people like we do today, and brands will begin to shape our experiences. Our avatars can wear Adidas or Nike. They will own virtual real estate. They can even open stores and sell virtual goods. It’ll be this whole new digital economy, and the way things are shaping up, it’ll create a lot of opportunities for big brands, old and new.
Just look at the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): it’s a collection of 10,000 ape avatars, and each of them acts as a ticket to an online social club. It might sound impossibly silly, but as of last week, an ape avatar was worth more than $280,000. The whole enterprise has surpassed $1 Billion in total traded volume, and Adidas has even launched a collaboration with BAYC.
Need more evidence that the metaverse is big business? Global fashion brand Balenciaga dipped their toe in with a collaboration in Fortnite, and they’ve launched an official metaverse business unit.
Lots of people are expecting that we’ll increasingly live through our avatars. One of the most compelling explanations I’ve heard about the metaverse comes from Shaan Puri. While everyone has been describing the metaverse as a digital place, but Puri argues that it’s a moment in time:
This makes a lot of sense to me.
So, what does all of this mean for our children? I suspect that the metaverse could come with a heavy dose of fear of missing out (FOMO) and social validation and comparison. It seems that it can easily fill the role of codified projection bias: our avatars can represent us in any way that we want, and over time that could lead to a separation of our physical and digital selves. Think about the heavy curation that already happens on Instagram, and the metaverse may provide a vehicle to put that on steroids. I do worry about this for all of us, including kids.
But, that doesn’t need to be the only thing the metaverse offers us. I believe there is potential for good in this nascent technology if we can use it to empower kids. Just imagine young users getting creative, designing their own products and sharing their ideas with family and friends in the metaverse. Imagine them expressing themselves, interacting with loved ones and learning new things. If we can build a metaverse that helps them do that, I think there’s cause for optimism yet.
It's early and time will tell. I am betting that once we get to a point where we can share a definition of exactly what the metaverse is, it will not resemble Mark Zuckerberg's vision. And that's probably a very good thing.
A deeper dive
Here are a few helpful resources in case you want to really dig into today's topic:
According to Wired, “talking about what “the metaverse” means is a bit like having a discussion about what “the internet” means in the 1970s.” That could be one reason that it’s so difficult to describe it. It hasn’t exactly taken shape yet. That said, they provide a few predictions for what we can expect.
The New York Times described the tech they expect to invade our lives in 2022, and they spent a great deal of time discussing the metaverse. Their guess? “The metaverse could still turn out to be a fad, depending on what products emerge and who buys them. Carolina Milanesi, a consumer technology analyst for the consulting firm Creative Strategies, said she worried that it could become a reflection of the privileged few who can afford to treat their digital selves.” That’s certainly the case with the Bored Ape Yacht Club.
TL;DR
Too long; didn't read. It shouldn't be a full-time job to keep up on industry news, so here is a mercifully quick summary of some other notable developments:
As promised, Instagram is launching an initial test of a reverse-chronological feed. But, according to Social Media Today, you can’t make this algorithm-free option the default: “The problem with Instagram’s solution, which has been in testing since early December, is that you won’t be able to make your preference the default option, which means that if you’d like to see your feed in reverse chronological order, you’ll have to manually switch over to your ‘Favorites’ or ‘Following’ feed every time you use the app.”
If your kids are into gaming, you’ve probably heard about Discord. The New York Times recently talked a bit about how this live chat platform went from obscure to immensely popular. And today, it’s not just gamers using the platform. There are lots of communities using the platform to connect.
And lastly
Here are a few more pieces of original writing from me and my team—just in case you're keen for more:
Last year, my team put together a guide to the metaverse specifically for parents. Check it out here to learn everything you need to know to keep your kids safe.
And if you have questions about Discord safety for kids, you’re not alone. Here’s a rundown of what parents can do to protect children if they’re using the chat platform.
Okay, that's it from me until next time. If you enjoyed this newsletter, and know of another parent who would as well, please feel free to forward it along.